Schierer Space

It’s about freaking time somebody implemented this! Thunderbird 3.0 just noticed that I had the word “attached” in my email and put up a reminder to check if I had intended to attach something to the message.

Sweet.

It allows you to add the attachment immediately, or “Remind Me Later” so that it prompts you if you try to send without the attachment in place.

Although it is too late for any commentary on this research to impact my purchasing decisions (the PC is already built and I’m using it right now), I’d still like to get it up before it is completely obsolete. So let’s go…

As always, building a new PC requires the integration of a few primary components which are listed in the order I generally consider them. Although in this case, I bought the power supply first. The same unit I used to replace the noisemaker that was my previous PS, the 500W OCZ supply from NewEgg, was once again available for $39.99 after MIB. Anyhow, the list goes…

1. CPU
2. Motherboard
3. Memory
4. System Disk
5. Video
6. Power Supply
7. Case
8. Optical Drive
9. OS
10. Peripherals

Much detail and rambling on after the fold… you have been warned.
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With a new member of the household, it’s been pretty busy around here. I have much to report, but haven’t had time to do any reporting.

Here is a list of what I’d like to take some time to write about… as a promissory note and a to-do list.

1. R is growing fast. We have a 1 month growth chart pic and many more. I will get these online soon.
2. N continues to be a joy. He’s learning so fast now I’m not sure school will be ready for him in two more years. He’s working on reading and spelling simple words. He’ll be 3 in May.
3. Snow! We finally got real winter weather here in central NY. Pics of outdoor snow constructions will be coming soon.
4. New PC research. With our tax returns burning a hole in our bank accounts, I’ve begun the process of specing out a new machine for K. We also need to get Win7 installed before N wipes out our much-more-difficult-to-secure WXP household PC.
5. New PC constructed. I’m using it now to write this post… and will use it to edit the pics to post them. I owe you comments on Win7, and performance of the new machine. Not to mention the build process itself. Must keep installing stuff if I’m going to get into a position to clear out this list.

Ok. Must get back to installation.

Cooties took a bit more effort to model in Excel than HHCO because the game has distinct states. The objective is to collect all the body parts of your Cootie bug which include: 1 Body, 1 Head, 1 Mouth, 1 Pair of eyes((A single molded piece)), 1 Headgear^[1] and 6 Legs. However, you must collect the Body followed by the Head before any other parts may be collected. Each part is selected based on the throw of a standard 6-sided die. If you successfully add a part to your bug, you get to roll again in the same turn. I didn’t model this, but rather did the statistics based on number of rolls required.

The average number of rolls required to complete the bug, based on 100 Monte Carlo runs, is 44 rolls. I’d estimate a tolerance of about +/- 5 rolls. Any individual player is not likely to reach this number, however, since any one lucky player at the table will end the game considerably earlier.

There is about a 20% chance of victory by 28 rolls for any single player. For four players, the game is over 60% of the time by this point. By 40 rolls, about 45% of players will have won meaning our table of 4 will have completed over 91% of the time. I did have one ’simulation’ exceed my modeling table with no victory after 100 rolls. The next highest was 77 rolls, but the density increased significantly below that.

Now if we can just get Nate to settle down enough to roll when it’s his turn we might actually get through a game in under 30 minutes.

1. In the modern version this includes antenna, a hat or a bow. [↩]

Well this is the requisite Avatar response post since it seems like the primary thing to write about these days other than the impossibility of complete aircraft security.

Overall, my reaction was very positive. I’m notorious for pointing out the inconsistencies in computer generated effect and plot lines. But strangely, perhaps intentionally, it was the live-action sequences that felt out of place in this film. I’m not sure that I ever felt like the environment was truly photo-realistic, but it wasn’t cartoon-ish either. The film moved along at a steady pace, with the occasional ’slow’ section was more than filled with eye candy. The same technique was used to distract you from the occasional plot hole… quick, change scenes to something pretty and the audience won’t notice the flaw. I saw the 3D showing (for the exorbitant price of $13), and the depth given by this illusion was worth it. The depth made the scenes more enveloping, and they didn’t kick you in the occipital lobe too often.

This is not a spoiler for anyone who has seen the previews, but stop reading if you’re the nervous type about such things.
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I just completed a relatively significant upgrade of the blog database as well as a normal Wordpress software update. It looks like things are up and running, and if all went well, you won’t notice. Let me know if you do.

Yes really.

Nate got a series of classic kids games for Christmas: Hi-Ho-Cherry-Oh, Candyland, Memory and Cooties. With the exception of Memory, these are all games of complete and total chance. For those that haven’t played,^[1] three of them basically go like this:

1. Invoke a random event.
2. Execute required action.
3. Has victory condition been met?
   • If so, yippee.
   • If not, repeat from step 1.

For Hi-Ho-Cherry-Oh, the randomizer is a spinner with 7 positions. Four positions let you take from 1 to 4 cherries off your tree, two positions penalize you 2 cherries and the last causes you to loose all of your cherries. Once you have collected 10 cherries, you win.

So being the geek that I am, I found myself wondering the average number of cherries gained per spin. At first this is simple (1+2+3+4-2-2)/6=1. Unfortunately, there is that nasty bucket which is a variable penalty. Rather than create the entire statistical equation,^[2] I simply created a Monte Carlo simulation in Excel. After about 100 ‘games’ it was clear that the average payout is between 1 and 1.1 cherries per turn.((This is determined as the 10 cherries needed to win divided by the number of spins required to get there. Even though the last spin might put you over 10, you can’t get that many off the tree.))

The shortest game is three spins (4,4,4;4,4,3;4,4,2;4,3,3). There are 10 winning series as the spins could come in any order and 343 possible outcomes. The odds are 2.9% of winning in the minimum amount of time. Of course the odds of a shorter game improve with more players as the game ends if any of the players succeeds, so roughly this increases to 11%. The maximum game is theoretically infinite, but about 40% of the time 10 spins or fewer are required (85% of the time for four players). By 20 spins, a solitaire game is over 75% of the time (with four players this would increase to 99.6%).

Ok, I now return you to your regularly scheduled intra-holiday period.

Maybe I’ll work on Cooties tomorrow. Candyland is just too annoying.

1. Really? [↩]
2. Involving Markov chains, etc. [↩]

It’s hard for me to wrap my head around the fact that we’re 11 days into October already. There’s been so much going on but so little has really been blog-worthy.

Some follow up news:

Some tech items:

• TV: The new flat screen looks much better than I expected. I admit I was skeptical about the whole HDTV thing, but it really is crisper and clearer. I’ve gotten so used to the wide-screen ratio on my computer at home (and laptop at work) that it feels much more natural than the 4:3 ratio now. Not that I’ve had much time for TV.
• CPU: New processor is humming along nicely. Calling this a success.
• K’s PC: Did some low level malware cleaning, nothing major, then did a WXP repair. Seems to be better now.
• Forged Alliance: Bought SupCom Gold (original plus FA expansion) for $5 on D2D. If you hurry you can get it before midnight. Annoyed that their site doesn’t seem to work properly with FF. However, since IE can’t handle downloads over 4GB, this forces you to install their annoying download manager. Also got Bioshock ($5!) for a rainy day (month?). Not sure when that’s going to happen. I’m bummed I found out about this sale in week 4 of 4… although my budget probably is not.

Life items:

• Work is insane.
• Last weekend: I have no idea. I can’t really remember last weekend… I think it was fall. See previous. There might have been pictures, and if there were I’ll post them soon.
• Nursery: Finally started painting. Got the room emptied out and setup for painting. Got three walls done. Fourth wall (complementing color), trim and doors remaining.
• Apple Fest: Went to Lafayette for the apple fest. Started drizzly and cloudy. Apple fritters were worth it. Cleared up by early afternoon.
• Pumpkins: On the way back from previous, we found a great farm along Rt.80^[1] selling pumpkins. We bought 3 ‘medium size’ pumpkins for $10.^[2] These pumpkins were enormous. Pics will follow. Very cool horse tire swing we may have to try to replicate.

Sleep now.

1. The farm is somewhere between Highland Forest and Rt. 91… sorry I can’t do better, but it’s a lovely scenic drive and I wasn’t paying that much attention. [↩]
2. They were $3 each, but the guy was so nice we gave him the change. [↩]

This is my inaugural post from our new office/guest bedroom. Technically, it’s the same room I had my office in before, but now there is a queen size bed crammed in also. Through some planning, sweat and back-breaking iteration, we have accommodated:

• One four poster queen bed (5×7.5′)
• One circa 1953 steel desk^[1] weighing in at ridiculous and measuring 2.5×5′.
• One large office desk chair
• Three 30″ 2-shelf bookcases.
• One two drawer filing cabinet
• All of my computer gear (Large tower, flatscreen and UPS on desk, flatbed scanner and laser printer on bookshelf and filing cabinet respectively)
• A closet full of shelving containing more books, computer parts and various other accessories

The room measures a just short of 10′x11′, has a door on the end of one wall, a window on the opposite wall (in the far corner), and in the same corner as the window (but on a third wall) is a deep closet. All desk and cabinet drawers are clear to extend to their full depth. All bookshelves have full access and the closet doors can open and close (bi-fold style)^[2]

I wish I had a lens wide-angle enough to show you just how packed, yet functional this is. It’s a bit tight getting around the bed to the closet, but a person can still fit easily. The bed fills pretty much half the room, and there won’t be much space for luggage… but we didn’t have to buy any new furniture.

Now that we’ve got the ex-guest bedroom cleared out, it can officially be transformed into the new nursery. That will pretty much be paint and window treatments. I’m bummed we don’t have the cash for the wood floors I wanted to put in, but new siding was more important.

1. We call it the battleship desk. [↩]
2. In the interests of full disclosure, I removed one of the doors simply because it serves no purpose now, but if it were there it would have sufficient clearance. [↩]

Thanks to everybody that voted. I sent in the pictures this morning as planned. This took, of course, considerably more effort than I anticipated because:

1. The images had to be less than 5MB to upload via their form, and 3 of mine were over that.
2. The online form once submitted thought for a really long time and then returned me to the blank form.
3. Upon deciding that I should email them to be sure, I proceeded to email them to photos@blah rather than photo@blah. I noticed this only after the first three emails had finished uploading and the “Email returned” message came back.
4. So I sent them all again.

Today I received an email in return saying basically: thanks for sending them by email we’re having upload issues. So maybe there won’t be much competition now…

So now I hope you’re wondering which images I submitted. If you look at the poll now that it’s closed there were two clear winners. Of course this morning when there was only 6 voters there was a four way tie. In the end I went with some combination of my gut and the voters. So the finalists were…

Fields at Dusk #1 (2619)

Wheels of Agriculture (2411)

Cleared for Landing (2007)

Independence Day (2886)